What’s Up with Real Estate?
National Real Estate News
Unemployment rate rises
The BLS jobs report showed that the US added 206,000 jobs in June, slightly above expectations. But the job gains reported for May and April were revised down by a combined 111,000! Also, the unemployment rate ("UR") unexpectedly rose to 4.1%. While that's still a low number, the UR has risen by half a percent in less than a year, which is often a recession red flag. [Source: BLS]
CPI a very nice surprise
Great news! The "headline" CPI (Consumer Price Index = inflation) for June declined 0.1% month-over-month, and the "core" CPI (excluding food & fuel) rose only 0.1% MoM. Both were better (that is, lower) than expected, meaning that annual "headline" inflation dropped to 3.0% YoY and annual "core" inflation eased to 3.3% YoY. [Source: BLS]
Breaking below 7%
Lower than expected May PCE + unemployment rate moving up to 4.1% + lower than expected June CPI = average mortgage rates have finally moved back below 7%! At the moment, the market is pricing in 1-2 rate cuts before year-end, with the first one expected at the September 18 Fed meeting. [Source: CME]
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