Weekly Talking Points - Friday 27th September
National Real Estate News
Price growth eases
In July, the Case-Shiller national home price index rose just 0.2% month-over-month, while the similarly-constructed FHFA price index posted an even smaller 0.1% MoM increase. After 4 years and 47% cumulative home price growth, supply and demand is becoming more balanced. But as the bar chart above shows, we're still seeing very strong YoY price growth from certain cities. [Source: S&P DJI]
Sales slow to react
The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI, which measures signed contracts for existing homes) rose just 0.6% MoM in August to 70.6. Mortgage rates have fallen 130 bps (1.3%) in the last 5 months, but the PHSI has barely budged. Consider this: the PHSI today is 4% BELOW where it was in October 2023 - when 30-yr mortgage rates were nearly 2% higher at 8%! [Source: NAR]
Best week to buy a home?
According to Realtor.com, the week of Sep 29-Oct 5 offers the best combination of rising inventory (more homes to choose from) and reduced competition (fewer bidding wars). In other words, a better chance to find a home you love at a (more) reasonable price. Serendipitously, mortgage rates have dropped just in time. [Source: Realtor.com, Mortgage News Daily]
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